Fabius
Bot — one locked machine

B1TREND

In the book · identity bot · slot 01
Coregate v1 rejectedHolds the book's identity slot (builder's choice). Not proof of being the best: no bot has passed the forward test yet.
The rule, as locked

“Long when the close is above the close N days ago, otherwise flat (time-series momentum, long/flat).”

Locked original text (Indonesian, hashed on-chain)

long bila penutupan > penutupan N hari lalu, selain itu flat (momentum deret waktu, long/flat)

parameter · N = 60tier A-16 assetsforward clock since 2026-10-01 spec locked on-chain · 0x23cb02…3daf · 2026-10-02 15:49 UTC ↗
01 — Paper book today

What it holds right now

The last tick in the public ledger, read live. Paper: a position intent, not an order.

15/16 heldbar 2026-10-10written 2026-10-11 08:40 UTCgross weight 93.75 %Verify this day →
BTC
6.25 %
ETH
6.25 %
BNB
6.25 %
SOL
6.25 %
XRP
6.25 %
DOGE
6.25 %
ADA
6.25 %
LINK
6.25 %
LTC
6.25 %
AVAX
6.25 %
TRX
flat
exited
DOT
6.25 %
BCH
6.25 %
ETC
6.25 %
ATOM
6.25 %
NEAR
6.25 %
heldshortflatledger/paper/B1-TREND.jsonl · 2026-10-29T09:37:48Z
02 — Day by day

Every closed day leaves a cube

One cube per day since the clock started. Holes stay holes. Click a day to check it against the chain.

03 — Executed in a demo account

Paper, venue rules, then real fills

The same decision three times: the paper ledger fills at the bar close, the venue-rules paper fills two minutes after the commit, and a Binance demo account fills for real. Virtual balance: no profit numbers.

real fee
4.0 bps
PRD target ≤ 7 bps
real vs venue-rules paper
+58.9 bps
PRD target measured, no target yet
commit → last fill
1 min
PRD target p95 ≤ 10 min
safety violations
0
PRD target 0
2026-10-02
demo · commit → last fill 10.9 h
demobackfilled16
venue-rules paper -0.6 bps
real fill +77.3 bps
paper = close
real fee 4.0 bpsnotional 1978safety violations 0
2026-10-03
demo · commit → last fill —
demo0
no orders: positions already matched the target · weight filled 99.2 %
safety violations 0
2026-10-04
demo · commit → last fill 1 min
demo1
real fill -581.2 bps
paper = close
real fee 4.0 bpsnotional 15safety violations 0
2026-10-05
demo · commit → last fill 1 min
demo1
real fill -20.8 bps
paper = close
real fee 4.0 bpsnotional 16safety violations 0
2026-10-06
demo · commit → last fill —
demo0
no orders: positions already matched the target · weight filled 99.0 %
safety violations 0
2026-10-07
demo · commit → last fill —
demo0
no orders: positions already matched the target · weight filled 95.7 %
safety violations 0
2026-10-08
demo · commit → last fill 1 min
demo3
real fill +293.1 bps
paper = close
real fee 4.0 bpsnotional 48safety violations 0

Right of the close mark = worse for us (paid more on a buy, got less on a sell). Every order is checked against the on-chain commit time before it is written: an order sent before its commit would show here as a violation. Source: ledger/eksekusi, written by the GitHub chain from the executor's public Gist.

04 — Locked, in time order

The rules that bind it

Each lock is a transaction; its block time proves the rule existed before every day judged after it. Days before the spec lock are marked, not hidden.

05 — Forward test

Nothing is sold before these fill

Locked thresholds (F-D16), counted from the public ledger. Settled days wait for Binance's monthly funding file.

1/20
signals
0/20
settled days
0/2
months
Confidence · forward record

—

Not measured: fewer than 2 settled forward days, so no number at all.

1 − p of the locked F-D16 block bootstrap (null: mean net daily forward return ≤ 0). How sure the forward record is that this bot earns after costs — not the chance that today's signal is right. Never includes assets, direction or size.

06 — When it dies

The kill rule, fixed before the first signal

Part of the spec hash: changing a word means a new bot with a new ledger.

“12 forward months without beating buy & hold on both MDD and Sharpe; or losing to a random-entry placebo with the same holding-time distribution.”
Locked original text (Indonesian, hashed on-chain)

12 bulan maju tanpa mengalahkan buy&hold pada MDD dan Sharpe; atau kalah dari placebo masuk-acak dengan distribusi lama tahan sama

How the machine checks it
B1-K1

Fires unless (bot Sharpe > benchmark Sharpe AND bot MDD > benchmark MDD) over 365 forward days with ≥ 90 % settled coverage; benchmark = equal-weight buy & hold of the same 16 perps, no costs.

Locked original text (Indonesian, hashed on-chain)

terpicu bila TIDAK (Sharpe bot > Sharpe patokan DAN MDD bot > MDD patokan)

B1-K2

Fires if bot net ≤ the median net of 1,000 circular-shift placebos (same exposure, same holding time).

Locked original text (Indonesian, hashed on-chain)

terpicu bila net bot <= median net placebo geser-melingkar

Clauses locked on-chain before any final settle · 2026-10-03 06:26 UTC · 0x7b05…960a ↗
PAPER ONLY · NO EDGE CLAIMED · FORWARD TEST NOT YET MET · VERIFY, DON'T TRUST · EVERY RULE LOCKED BEFORE THE DATA · PAPER ONLY · NO EDGE CLAIMED · FORWARD TEST NOT YET MET · VERIFY, DON'T TRUST · EVERY RULE LOCKED BEFORE THE DATA · PAPER ONLY · NO EDGE CLAIMED · FORWARD TEST NOT YET MET · VERIFY, DON'T TRUST · EVERY RULE LOCKED BEFORE THE DATA ·